The years of terrorism in which different non-state actors as terrorists have challenged humanity, religions, cultures, countries, Governments, law enforcement and innocent citizens have been full of threats, fears and cycles of social conflicts. The terrorism is a unique transnational dangerous process because it can divide people, create more vulnerable and continue its barbarian business. The hate factor is the starting point as fuel to spread among communities to divide and rule in addition to many other variables.
The dangerous process has not divided only societies and political decision makings, but have divided the academic world. Every one defining terrorism which is end product of radicalisation process, in his own words and meanings. Every country develops their own tools to address the problem and solve. Surely, each country and even each city has different variables, some as more active, others under the surface and more variables even cannot be seen as mixtures of many sub variables of radicalisation process.
As a real performing picture, it’s very transparent, our law enforcement are and have been trying their best to protect us against vulnerable unwanted intentions, diffuse any terror plot and in a most faithful manner, advising citizens and Administrations, within their mandate, knowledge and resources. Equally, the counter radicalisation initiatives by others can be great added value and many researchers, institutions, academia and experts have been trying their best to find the best solutions.
It should be noted, if something happens, threats appears from one corner to the other, a lone wolf and radicalised group emerge spontaneously like a magic, as reactionary to each unwanted event, we have surely learned one thing it’s called crying which spread further fear automatically. The crying again and again with these unwanted events witness about gaps and those gaps are very complex and technical to be filled. Equally it’s sad to say, after each unwanted event, few of us start blaming law enforcement (which is illogical and baseless to blame, because the cognitive dirt has to be cleaned through counter cognitive cleaner by the societies as whole). Therefore, it’s important to fill those gaps with pure relevant knowledge, in which contents of the problem are fully mapped at individual, micro and macro level and contents of the solutions are developed in pure relevance to the contents of mapped problem.
Therefore, mapping of radicalisation is foundation and starting work for counter radicalisation industry, because if there is no mapping, all initiatives are on the surface and logically blind. Mapping is first foot print of the problem to fully identify and provide systematic approach to counter the complex problem with correct sequence, priorities and discipline AS FIRST DOOR TO PREPAREDNESS WITH MEASUREMENTS. As starting point, to map radicalisation, the experts must have corrected scientific definition of the problem, which could bind the experts understanding to pure problem described in scientific and logical manner.
For example, according to Tahir’s definition radicalisation is “A composite dynamic process in which, “The external unwanted variables interface with vulnerable human mind to run unwanted cognitive dynamic system, with an unwanted cognitive interactive management of diverse mind space functions to result unwanted behaviour, attitude, acts and exposures to activate violence as compensation to himself and his ideology”.
The definition sustains a cognitive intelligence to develop to the next stage of composite understanding, developing tools, including indicators, preventing methods, comprehensive mapping and feedback mechanism.
For mapping, Experts must have full knowledge of process through model or social cognitive design (I prefer process Model) as basic knowledge, how process runs, what are the external variables, types of variables, mixed variable, independent variables, active ones, passive ones, appearing on the surface and those hidden, controllable and uncontrollable. All categories of those unwanted variables are vital to be known.
Experts must have knowledge, how those variables interface with human mind space, how when, where, what and why? And activate, active and passive mind space function as full or partial entry.
Experts must know the internal dynamic system of the human mind space function, how those functions run as normal and how those run after interfacing of the external unwanted variables. What and how? can stop those variables to start unwanted management and opening the cognitive process for more unwanted variables to support the first ones and what cannot stop under specific conditions or counter variables?
Experts must know, all types of entries, exits and state of satisfactions. These cognitive states of satisfactions can be temporary or permanent. The permanent state of satisfaction can be called as cognitive possession and is the real challenge to intervene and diffuse. The mapping is the only method, in which all types of possession can be identified clearly.
Finally, expert must know, all variables which exist with human mind space function and have crucial role to open the process or close the process. The functioning of the human mind space functions is integrated to diverse variables, intensities, directions and are highly complex, but with some rules and expert knowledge, it’s possible to find the differences. The most difficult phase in mapping is cluster phenomenon, in which variables create a complex possession and the vulnerable expose very different indicators in complete opposite directions (he was a nice young man, neighbours say, but later saw him as a terrorist in the news).
Mapping can be completed through different methods and mapper require data and information from existing institutions, there in a vulnerable have been known in some ways. These information’s, history and further interviewing can add up to categorise the vulnerable into most precise group, known as degree1, degree2, degree3, degree4, etc. These degrees represent the intensity and direction of the radicalisation. The intensity and directions can be mapped by assimilating the information and data gathered about the vulnerable and confirmed with the process model or process knowledge. The intensities are evaluated through the external variables interfaced or interfacing, internal variables of human mind space function together with the activity of internal variables of mind space, and the output of indicators emerging out of the running process. Similarly, the direction is calculated through change factor, how every variable, indicator, factor is changed within x time.
Picture-Advanced Methods to use indicators is added value in Mapping
Mapping knowledge at individual, group, city, county and country level have same principles based on foundation knowledge but the difference between individual and macro level is, that at macro level, we divide the social layers, integrate one town into groups and now variables are calculated at group level, the sources of unwanted messages are counted with frequencies of the unwanted messages and categorise with intensity and direction. . In short, if mapping cannot be done at individual level, it’s not possible to map the radicalisation of the whole town.
There are few methods which we have found, but cannot be described as principle of all, because each town, county, group have diversity in variables as described above and each town administration have different setup of data or information. Therefore, the method has to be tailored according to the factual variables and the information-data available within that specific area.
Finally, I suggest that we must move to more systematic practices with knowledge-based tools and initiate reformation in our counter work to fill those existing gaps being humble and faithful but not being panic.
It should be noted, if today any one asks a simple question from an expert or expertise house, kindly give me information, how much is radicalisation in Manchester, or Oslo or in whole UK or in Germany? There is no answer available. The mapping is the only knowledge-based initiatives for systematic and standard approach for all to follow for correct preventions and security, because it equates the risks present in the form of threats intentions, threat capabilities, Susceptibilities, weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
If each and every country can start mapping of radicalisation, from micro to macro level, it will be best practices to start prevention and even assessing correct financial and other resources for each city or county according to its realistic requirements, because radicalisation of New York cannot be same as of London, and radicalisation of east London cannot be same as of west London, due to diversity of external and internal variables as shown in the picture.
As a final conclusion, Mapping is the basic tool, for fully evaluating the prevent programs, quality of the contents of the prevent program based on relevance to the contents of the problem, effectiveness of the program as change factor found in x time within social layers or variables and performance accountability of all actors running the program.
Expert on Dynamic and Scientific Methodology of Counter Terrorism – Europe Desk (Norway)