It has become “the new normal,” a structural part of 21st-century life. And the jihadist threat against the West is just as strong now as ever. These are the conclusions of “The Legacy of Syria: Global Jihad Remains a Threat to Europe,” a new report from the Dutch intelligence agency, Algemene Inlichting en Veiligheids Dienst (AIVD). Indeed, according to the report, the demise of the Islamic State has proved to be just a hiccup in the ongoing efforts to found a caliphate in the Middle East.
Thousands of ISIS sympathizers still walk freely in the streets of Europe and across the West, and “as a result of the conflict in Syria, the [global jihadist] movement has grown and professionalized.” Hence, while there have been fewer ISIS-driven attacks since the fall of the Caliphate, the AIVD does not expect the trend to last.
The media and even counter-terrorism experts tend to refer to those who execute such attacks as “lone wolves.” Not so, according to the AIVD. ISIS has shown itself to be extremely proficient at inspiring potential jihadists, even among those who have never fought for ISIS or even had direct contact with its members. Hence, says the agency, although so-called “lone wolves” may have prepared and executed their attacks on their own, “they are indeed part of a (virtual) jihadist network.”
That network also may often include others who are not directly connected with ISIS. But some ISIS leaders continue to actively pursue sympathizers via social media, encouraging them to attack, reviewing potential targets, and providing advice along the way, says the report. Such efforts appear to be part of the final plans ISIS spokesman Abu Mohamed al-Adnani announced before his death in 2016, when “he declared the duty to perform terrorist attacks above the duty to come to the so-called Caliphate,” the AIVD says.
And it’s not just ISIS. Al Qaeda is resurgent, and working to reclaim its place as the leader of global jihad. Indeed, the AIVD warns, it would be a mistake to think that Al Qaeda is no longer a serious player in the “jihadist-terrorist threat.”
“Al Qaeda is larger and more widespread geographically than before the terror attacks in the US,” thanks to a wide network of affiliate groups, the report states. And even as it strengthens its presence and activities in Syria, it continues to view attacks against the West as a crucial part of its mandate. Under the charismatic new leadership of Osama bin Laden’s son, Hamza, Al Qaeda is hoping to appeal, as ISIS did, to sympathizers worldwide, particularly Western Muslims who would be prepared to wage jihad at home.
Hamza has become an important figure, the AIVD believes, in part because he has never criticized ISIS, as other Al Qaeda leaders have. The hope for Al Qaeda is that he will therefore be able to recruit former, “disillusioned,” ISIS members and bring them into the Al Qaeda camp.
The AIVD also finds that a 2017 call by ISIS leaders to take a more active role has been effective. In May, for instance, France24 reported, “Over the last four years in France, 22 women who had not been abroad to join the IS group have been arrested over their involvement in plans to carry out 12 terrorist attacks on home soil.” And in the UK, two British members of an all-female cell with ISIS ties received life sentences last August for plotting a terrorist attack.
Not to be overlooked either are the returnees — men, women, and even children — who are returning to Europe from the failed Caliphate. Though some returnees are incarcerated, hundreds of them are due to be released in the next two years. The danger these returnees pose is significant, and not just because of their capacity, through their military and battle training, to wage attacks in the West. Also of concern is their hero status among jihadist sympathizers and wannabes. “These jihad veterans can, with their status and experience, expand existing networks [and] strengthen and build new (transnational) networks,” the AIVD warns.
And finally there are the so-called “cubs of the caliphate,” children who were either brought to ISIS by their Western parents or were born there, and are also now returning. Such children can not only inspire schoolmates once they begin attending (or return to) schools in their land of origin, but older children will likely, as with the “jihad veterans,” have formed bonds with others their age in other countries. Again, the possibility of transnational jihadist ties could be a threat in the long-term.
Hence, says the AIVD, “the attractiveness of the jihadist ideology is expected to remain, even without any further catalyst such as the conflict in Syria. Because of this, global jihadism, both in the short- and long-term, will continue to form a threat.”